March
The 14th Amendment gambit is breathtakingly foolish.
The Colorado Supreme Court’s decision Tuesday disqualifying former President Donald Trump from appearing on the state’s presidential ballot is breathtakingly foolish.
I say that as someone who considers Trump an aspiring authoritarian who poses a serious threat to democracy in America. Unfortunately, many people who agree with me in this judgment — including the lawyers who supported the gambit of arguing that Section 3 of the 14th Amendment bars Trump from running and the Colorado judges who were persuaded by it — believe the former president can be neutralized by appealing to a clause of the Constitution written to exclude members of an armed rebellion against the United States (who had surrendered after defeat in the Civil War) from holding office.
But this is an illusion. Trump fundamentally represents a political problem, which means he can only be beaten in the political arena. Efforts to take him down by other means will only make him stronger.
From the very beginning of his political rise, Trump has played by the rules of populist politics. The populist sets himself up as the angry, defiant champion of ordinary people against them — the powers that be who make up the political, cultural, journalistic and legal establishments. The populist calls them corrupt. He dubs them cheaters who rig the system to benefit themselves. He insists they will stop at nothing to hold onto their ill-gotten power and privileges.
The populist style of angry opposition has the effect of reversing the polarities that prevail in normal democratic politics. For a standard politician, a criminal indictment is a major problem, a setback that can derail a career in public office. But for a politician like Trump, an indictment can be an opportunity because it confirms the populist narrative: See, they view me as such a potent threat that they’re threatening to throw me in jail just to get me to stop fighting for you. But they can’t scare me. Together, we will achieve vengeance!
Trump has been incredibly successful at weaponizing this way of doing politics. Back in late March, on the eve of his first indictment in New York City, Trump was beating second-place Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in GOP primary polls by roughly 15 points — a solid but hardly insurmountable lead. Three weeks later, that lead had doubled to 30 points. Four months and a few more indictments later, Trump was ahead by 40. Today, he leads by nearly 50 points.
He’s also already begun to fundraise over the Colorado ruling, with the pitch pointing out that the four judges who voted to remove Trump’s name from the ballot were all appointed by Democrats.
Many of the roughly 63% of Republicans who support the former president do so on the basis of his lies about the “stolen” 2020 election. They think President Joe Biden prevailed through fraud that was covered up by election officials aligned with the Democratic Party, that the insurrection of January 6, 2021, was a patriotic effort by ordinary citizens to resist Biden’s power grab and that partisan prosecutors are now attempting to railroad their tribune by throwing him in jail as he seeks to vindicate himself and his cause.
It’s bad that a significant chunk of the American electorate has fallen prey to delusions encouraged by a demagogue. But you know what’s worse? Giving those deluded voters fodder for their belief that powerful people in American public life (constitutional lawyers and state Supreme Court judges appointed by Democrats) actually are seeking to deprive them of the opportunity to express their political preferences at the ballot box.
The Colorado ruling not only disqualifies Trump from appearing on primary ballots in the state; it even forbids the Colorado secretary of state from counting write-in votes for the former president.
One needn’t be a populist to recognize what’s happening here: A solid majority of the Republican electorate wants Trump to be its nominee, but those who really wield power in our system have decided they will not permit it. So far this has only happened in Colorado. But now that a state has acted, courts in other states are sure to follow. I can’t think of a series of events more likely than this to shred the legitimacy of the judicial branch of government among Republican voters — and for good reason.
Such a guilty verdict must also establish that those actions constituted acts covered by the relevant section of the 14th Amendment. Unless and until that happens, the attempt to overrule the preferences of Republican voters will be rightly judged an illegitimate power grab.
Democracy cannot be vindicated by abrogating democracy.
Which is why the best outcome of this episode would be for the US Supreme Court to strike down the Colorado ruling swiftly and unambiguously, making clear that, for now, no state will be permitted to disqualify Trump from seeking or holding the office of the presidency. Trump and his populist style of politics can’t be defeated by lawyers and judges. They can only be beaten at the ballot box.
The time and place to declare Trump disqualified from holding high office was at the conclusion of his second impeachment trial, conducted by elected officials of both parties in the US Senate in the weeks following January 6. Fearing the wrath of the voters, insufficient numbers of Republican senators were willing to convict him.
I think that was a terrible mistake, and one with potentially disastrous consequences. But that doesn’t mean a handful of judges in states dominated by Democrats have the legitimacy to reverse course now by forbidding Republican voters from casting ballots for their preferred candidate — especially before Trump has been found guilty in a court of law for acts committed in the days leading up to and on January 6.
我认为，科罗拉多州最高法院，裁定前任总统特朗普没有资格参与该州总统选举初选，是一种令人窒息的愚蠢行为。
我认同一些人的观点，即特朗普是以为对于美国民主具有严重威胁的authoritarian。不幸的是，许多与我一样认同上述观点的人，——例如那些支持援引第十四修正案对特朗普采取先手行动的律师，以及被他们说服的该州法官——，他们相信可以通过援引一条，在字面上排除了那些参与武装叛乱对抗美国（这些人都在南北战争中被击败之后遭到逮捕）的成员，担任政府公职的宪法中的条款，就可以将这位前总统无害化和中性化。
但这是一种幻觉。特朗普本质上代表着一个政治问题，这就意味着他只能在政治领域被击败。在其他领域击败他的尝试都会使他更加强大。
从他政治崛起伊始，特朗普就在按照populist政治的规则出牌。这位populist将自己设定为一位愤怒的、反叛的、代表普罗大众对抗“他们”的代言人，——“他们”指代构成政治、文化、新闻、和法律的建制派的权力所有者。特朗普评价“他们”为腐败堕落，称呼“他们”是操纵整个系统来为自己牟利的窃贼。他宣称“他们”为了保有自己非法占有的权力和特权永不停歇。
特朗普作为愤怒的反叛者的风格，具有一种能够反转那些支配正常民主政治极端状况逻辑的效能。对于一位常规政治人物来说，一桩法律诉讼是一个严重问题，是一个可能导致其政治生涯走向歧途的重大挫折。但对于一位像特朗普一样的populist来说，一项指控可能意味着一个机会。因为它确认了一项如下所述的叙述—— “看到了吗？他们将我视为一个强烈的威胁，一个不惜通过将我投入监狱也要阻止为你们而战的威胁。但特们吓不倒我。我们一起，就可以完成复仇。“
特朗普一直以来都在成功地将这种手段用作自己的政治武器。回到今年三月的时候，当他在纽约市面对自己的第一次诉讼，特朗普仅领先党内第二位候选人德·桑蒂斯15%，——一个相当扎实的但是还不完全是无法克服的领先优势。仅三周之后，这个优势就翻倍来到了30%。在夹杂了其余几次诉讼的四个月之后，他领先了40%。今天，他的领先优势达到了几乎50%。
特朗普已经在筹备一项针对科州裁定的政治募捐campaign，其中一个议题就是宣扬，在裁决中四位支持将特朗普在初选中除名的法官都是被democrats任命的。
在那63%支持这位前总统的美国人中的大多数，都基于2020年总统大选的结果被偷走这一谎言，支持如下行动：他们认为拜登总统是由于选举委员会和民主党联合实施的舞弊才得以胜选。因此，发生在2021年1月6日的武装暴动是一场由普通公民发起的，来组织拜登总统获得权力的爱国行为，而那些（支持除名的）的巡回检查官正在尝试扳倒这位已经证明了自己的为人与动机的保民官。
糟糕的情形已经在发生，那就是有相当多数量的选民已经被这位煽动者挑动的幻象所蒙骗。但你可知更糟的是什么？那就是给已经收到蒙骗的投票者的错误信念以如下佐料：那些在美国人公共生活中占有权力的人（比如宪法律师和被democrats任命的州最高法院法官们）实际上的确正在寻求剥夺他们在选票上表带自己政治观点的机会。
科罗拉多州的裁定不仅是特朗普无权参与该州初选，它甚至阻止该州行政院把已经写有特朗普名字的名字的选票进行计票。
甚至不需要是一个populist也能明白这其中发生了什么：相当一部分的republican选民希望特朗普成为自己的候选人，但那些在美国系统中实际掌握权力的人不允许这种事发生。现在，这种裁定仅发生在科罗拉多州。这意味着有一个州已经在行动，这回招徕其他州的跟随。我无法想象比这一系列事件更能动摇对于政府体系中司法系统的legitimacy的信任，而且他们有理由这么做。
这样的有罪判决，必须能够证明包含了宪法第十四修正案相关条款涵盖的行为。除非此种情况发生，那么这种剥夺共和党选民表达自己政治倾向的尝试都应该被（联邦最高法院）裁定为一次不合宪的权利剥夺。
democracy不能被用废除democracy的方式来维护。
这就是为什么现在最好的结果就是联邦最高法院迅速而毫不迟疑地（指快速地9:0之类的结果）推翻科罗拉多州的裁决。以此来明确，没有一个州可以被允许剥夺特朗普谋求自己总统任期的权利。特朗普和他的populist政治不应被律师和法官击败，他们只能被在投票箱中被击败。
曾经有过的裁定特朗普不能留在最高权力的时机和场合已经错失，那是在针对特朗普的第二次弹劾表决现场，由两党经由选民选出的参议院们发起的参议院表决，这发生在一月六日国会暴动的几星期之后。当时，由于担忧可能招致选民的怒火，位数不足的共和党参议员选择认为特朗普有罪。
我认为那是一个非常严重的错误，也许会带来灾难般的后果。但这绝不意味着一个州的几名由民主党任命的法官具有正当性去推翻这样一个路线，以一种禁止共和党选民在初选中提名自己偏好的候选人的方式，——尤其是在特朗普还没有因发生在一月六日后及之后的行为而被法院判决有罪之前。
MAIN